
Even after seven years of writing macroeconomic analysis for the liberty movement and bearing witness to astonishing displays of financial and political stupidity by more “skeptics” than I can count, it never ceases to amaze me the amount of blind faith average Americans place in the strength of the U.S. dollar. One could explain in vast categorical detail the history of fiat currencies, the inevitable destruction caused by inflationary printing and the conundrum caused when any country decides to monetize its own debt just to stay afloat — often, to no avail.
Bank bailouts, mortgage company bailouts, Treasury bond bailouts, stock market bailouts, bailouts of foreign institutions: None of this seems to faze the gibbering bobbleheaded followers of the Federal Reserve cult. Logic and reason and wisdom bounce like whiffle balls off their thick skulls. They simply parrot one of two painfully predictable arguments:
- Argument No. 1: There is no way foreign countries will ever dump the U.S. dollar because they are so dependent on American consumers to buy their export goods.
- Argument No. 2: There is no way the dollar’s value will ever collapse because it is the dominant petro-currency, and the entire world needs dollars to purchase oil.
I have written literally hundreds of articles over the years dismantling the first argument, pointing out undeniable signals that include:
- China’s subtle dumping of the dollar — using bilateral trade agreements with other developing nations and, more recently, major economic powers like Germany and Japan
- The massive gold-buying spree undertaken by China and Russia — even in the face of extreme market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase and Co. and CME Group Inc.
- The dumping of long-term U.S. Treasuries by foreign creditors in exchange for short-term Treasuries that can be liquidated at a moment’s notice.
- The fact that bonds now are supported almost entirely by Fed stimulus. When the stimulus ends, America’s ability to honor foreign debts will end and faith in the dollar will crumble.
- Blatant statements by the International Monetary Fund calling for the end of the dollar’s world reserve status and the institution of special drawing rights (SDRs) as a replacement.
The second argument held weight for a short time, only because the political trends in the Mideast had not yet caught up to the financial reality already underway. Today, this is quickly changing. The petrodollar’s status is dependent on a great number of factors remaining in perfect alignment, socially, politically and economically. If a single element were to fall out of place, oil markets would explode with inflation in prices, influencing the rest of the world to abandon the greenback. Here are just a few of the primary catalysts and why they are an early warning of the inevitable death of the petrodollar.
Egyptian Civil War
I was recently contacted by a reader in reference to an article I wrote concerning the likelihood of civil war in Egypt, a civil war which erupted only weeks later.
She asked why I had waited until this year to make the prediction and why I had not called for such an event after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, as many mainstream pundits had. The question bears merit. Why didn’t Egypt ignite with violent widespread internal conflict after Mubarak was deposed? It seemed perfectly plausible, yet the mainstream got the timing (and the reasons) horribly wrong.
My response was simple: The Mideast is being manipulated by elitist organizations towards instability, and this instability is a process. The engineered Arab Spring, I believe, is not so much about the Mideast as it is about the structure of the global economy. An energy crisis would be an effective tool in changing this structure. Collapse in the Mideast would provide perfect opportunity and cover for a grand shift in the global paradigm. However, each political step requires aid from a correct economic atmosphere, and vice versa.
If you want to identify a possible trend within a society, you have to take outside manipulation into account. You have to look at how economic events work in tandem with political events and at how these events benefit globalization as a whole. The time was not right after Mubarak’s overthrow. The mainstream media jumped the gun. If the target is the U.S. dollar and Egypt is the distraction, this year presented perfect opportunity with the now obvious failure of quantitative easing stimulus being exposed.
As the situation stands, the Egyptian military regime that overthrew Mohammed Morsi has completely cut the Muslim Brotherhood out of the political process and murdered at least 450 protesters, including prisoners already in custody.
Morsi supporters have responded by torching government buildings and shooting police personnel. But the real fighting will likely begin soon, as the current government calls for a ban on the Muslim Brotherhood itself. Simultaneously, hatred for the United States and its continued support of the Egyptian power base — regardless of who sits on the throne — is growing to a fever pitch throughout the region. This is not healthy for the life of the petrodollar in the long run.
It is important for Americans to understand when examining Egypt that this is not about taking sides. The issue here is that circumstances are nearly perfect for war and that such a war will spread and will greatly damage oil markets. The Suez Canal accounts for nearly 8 percent of the world’s ocean trade, and 4.5 million barrels of oil per day travel the corridor. Already, oil prices have surged due to the mere threat of disruption of the Suez (as I predicted). And this time, the nation is not going to recover. A drawn-out conflict is certain, given the nature of the military coup in place and the adamant opposition of the Muslim population.
Strangely, there are still some in the mainstream arguing that the Suez will “never close” because “it is too important to the Egyptian economy,” The importance of the Suez to the Egyptian government is irrelevant in the midst of all-out revolution. The Suez will close exactly because there will be no structure left to keep the canal open. In the meantime, oil prices will continue to rise and distrust of the United States will continue to fester.
Saudi Arabia Next?
The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is at once symbiotic and parasitic, depending on how one looks at the situation. The very first oil exploration and extraction deal in Saudi Arabia was sought by the vast international oil cartels of Royal Dutch Shell, Near East Development Company, Anglo-Persian, etc., but eventually fell into the hands of none other than the Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company. The dark history of Standard Oil aside, this meant that Saudi business would be handled primarily by American interests. And the Western thirst for oil, especially after World War I, would etch our relationship with the reigning monarchy in stone.
A founding member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia was one of the few primary oil-producing nations that maintained an oil pipeline that expedited processing and bypassed the Suez Canal. (The pipeline was shut down, however, in 1983). This allowed Standard Oil and the United States to tiptoe around the internal instability of Egypt, which had experienced ongoing conflict which finally culminated in the civil war of 1952. Considered puppets of the British Empire at the time, the ruling elites of Egypt were toppled by the Muslim Brotherhood, leading to the eventual demise of the British pound sterling as the top petro-currency and the world reserve. The British economy faltered and has never since returned to its former glory.
On the surface, Saudi Arabia seems to have avoided the effects of the Arab Spring climate, but all is not as it seems. The defection of Saudi Prince Khalid Bin Farhan Al-Saud has brought up startling questions as to the true state of the oil producing giant.
I believe this defection is only the beginning of Saudi Arabia’s troubles and that America's largest oil partner is soon to witness domestic turmoil that will disrupt oil shipments around the world. America’s support for a monarchy that is so brutal to its population will only hasten the end of the dollar’s use in global oil trade, especially if these puppet regimes are toppled.
For those who doubt that Saudi Arabia is in line for social breakdown, I would ask why the nation felt it necessary to pump billions of dollars into the new Egyptian military junta.
While the country is surely being used in some cases as a proxy by the West, the Saudi government itself is fearful that success of dissenting elements will spread to its own borders. Little do they understand that this is part of the globalist game plan. Without control over Saudi petroleum, the United States loses its last influential foothold in the oil market, and there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the dollar will fall as the petro-currency soon after. The desperation caused by such an energy crisis will make international markets beg for a solution, which global banking cartels led by the IMF are more than happy to give.
Iranian Wild Card
The U.S. government’s outright creation of the Syrian insurgency and its funding and armament of al-Qaida agents have understandably angered numerous Mideast nations, including Iran. Iran sits on the most vital oil shipping lane in the world: the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 percent of the world’s annual oil exports are shipped through Hormuz, and the narrow inlet is incredibly easy to block using nothing but deliberately sunken freighters. In fact, this tactic is exactly what Iran has been training for in order to frustrate a U.S./Israeli invasion.
A U.S. or NATO presence on the ground or in the air above Syria, Egypt or Iran will most likely result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing sharp rises in gasoline costs that Americans cannot afford.
Russia/China Oil Deal
Finally, just as most bilateral trade deals removing the dollar as world reserve have gone ignored by the mainstream media, so has the latest sizable oil deal between Russia and China. Russia has been contracted by the Chinese to supply 25 years of petroleum, and this deal follows previously established bilateral guidelines — meaning the dollar will not be used by the Chinese to purchase this oil.
I expect that this is just the beginning of a chain reaction of oil deals shunning the dollar as the primary trade mechanism. These deals will accelerate as the Mideast sees more internal strife and as the popular distaste for the United States becomes a liability for anyone in power.
The Dollar Is A Paper Tiger
Some might argue that oil discoveries in the Midwestern U.S. could be used to counter the disruption of oil pipelines in the Middle East, and certainly, there is much untapped oil in America. However, to claim that this oil would somehow negate a crisis is naive, primarily because oil supply is not the ultimate issue; the dollar's petro-status IS the ultimate issue. That status is dangerously reliant on the continued stability of Western friendly regimes in the East. We can produce all the oil we want within our own borders, but if the dollar loses global standing as the world reserve, we will STILL see a massive debasement of our currency's value, we will still see collapse, and I guarantee, most of our domestic oil will end up being exported as payment to foreign creditors just to satisfy outstanding debts.
The dollar is no more invincible than any other fiat currency in history. In some ways, it is actually far weaker than any that came before. The dollar is entirely reliant on its own world reserve status in order to hold its value on the global market. As is evident, countries like China are already dumping the greenback in trade with particular nations. It is utterly foolish to assume this trend is somehow “random” rather than deliberate. Foreign countries would not be initiating the process of a dollar dump today if they did not mean to follow through with it tomorrow. All that is left is for a cover crisis to be conjured. Existing tensions in the Mideast signal a pervasive crisis, most likely an energy crisis, in the near term.
You can contact Brandon Smith at: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
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written by justanobserver , August 21, 2013
Brandon,
What if the East (both near and far) actually grasps that they could have unchallenged hegemony (in a British/American empire sense) over world trade and its attendant wealth by playing along with the globalist air of self-importance until they were positioned to end the familial/ancestral domination of the globalists?
Perhaps the East will be just the same old song and dance with different ethnic features but it would make the world more interesting if they grasped that true power meant obeying no one, even if those no one's were the source of your ascendancy to the world stage.
A world re-ordered along non-European lineage would be far more of a shock than western thought could handle.
written by justanobserver , August 21, 2013
Brandon, I think you are correct but to see the globalists fail sooner would be better. Who knows, failing sooner might be a catalyst for re-birthing the concept of far less intrusive and corruptible government.
But that goal will most likely come at a far higher price.
written by nick m. , August 21, 2013
Good article Brandon. I first learned about the Petrodollar system from this mind-blowing article...
http://www.ftmdaily.com/petrodollar
written by Arizona , August 21, 2013
SAY guys ,have any of you given any thoughts to what it is your going to trade all that GOLD AND SILVER your collecting FOR,when the stock market crashes,and theres a MASS FAMINE ON THE LAND,and the LORD says IT WILL BE THE WORSE the worlds ever seen,WHAT IS IT you plan to BUY?cause really, I wouldn't trade you a bag of BEANS for a hundred gold pieces,and with the russian and NATO troops here,I think ammo would be your best investment,or maybe farming equipment,I know some of you have amassed a fortune,BUT,what about the INVASION thats about to happen? and it is going to happen,OBAMA,ain't going to stand trial for treason you know...................
written by krb , August 21, 2013
Arizona,
Do what you think is best for you, but based on all that has been going on and what I've been reading and what others are doing who seem to know more that I do, I'm choosing to have some gold and silver along with ammo, food and equipment.
When the dollar goes away, some kind of currency will eventually show up, and how will you buy that currency.
Just remember, " it's better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it."
written by suezq , August 21, 2013
Excellent article Brandon. This is certainly your forte.
Thank you.
written by JonL , August 21, 2013
In the end mass media will push for the gold standard to come back. This will be a deception as it will reset the system keeping the power in the bankers Court.
Bill still covers this indepth.
written by steve from virginia , August 21, 2013
Argument No. 1: There is no way foreign countries will ever dump the U.S. dollar because they are so dependent on American consumers to buy their export goods.
Not really, citizens overseas use dollars when lending rates are cheap. Also, dollars are good collateral for exporters who can lend in their own currencies against the dollars and 'develop'. The problems within countries that do so (China, Japan and Asian 'tigers') is with the mindless nature of their development, not the dollar collateral that finances it.
Argument No. 2: There is no way the dollar’s value will ever collapse because it is the dominant petro-currency, and the entire world needs dollars to purchase oil.
Crude is priced in dollars on futures' exchanges but bought and sold generally in any currency tradable on forex markets including euros, sterling, yen, etc. Oil dollars are easily swapped in Dubai for other currencies if need be.
China makes bilateral currency deals because its government chooses not expose the RMB currency to the markets (where it might be treated the same as the rupee).
All currencies are fiat, that is, they are credible to their users for whatever reason. Currencies have vanished when countries are conquered, otherwise ... dollars have been around for + 200 years. Pound sterling?
Dollar float matters as does a gigantic credit market. No other currency can command the liquid marketplace as can the dollar. If there is an 'official' dollar credit shortage overseas for any reason, the Eurodollar market can provide standby liquidity, for instance.
The petroleum problem has little to do with dollars and more to do with petroleum depletion and a wasteful economy ... one that does not return anything for petroleum use.
written by speedshot , August 21, 2013
"Precious" metals are only thus because of their rarity. When food becomes equally rare, I daresay (as Arizona states) it will be very difficult to persuade me to part with any for some inedible shiny metal. I don't believe it appeared very prominently on Maslow"s hierarchy of needs.
written by krb , August 21, 2013
Nick M.
The article was great and yes mind blowing
Steve from Virginia, You should read this 4 part article.
It might shine some light where there is darkness.
http://www.ftmdaily.com/petrodollar
written by upgradde , August 22, 2013
yes farmland and ammo are great but they are not money or and while ammo could be used as a currency farmland could not since it is illiquid, not portable or easily divisible. How do you buy a weeks worth of food with your 10th acres of prime Iowa farmland? It could be done with ammo, but where does the someone store $100,000 worth of ammo? There are reasons why gold and silver have been money for 5000 yrs and those reasons have not changed.
written by Eye Dee ho , August 24, 2013
"How do you buy a week worth of food with your 10 acres of prime Iowa farmland?"
That is NOT a hard deal to make! With land you could provide shelter and some sort of security. I've got guns/ammo. Even better security for you on my land. Just bring your food. Then you can share in my harvest in due time. Your stored food will eventually deplete (or worse--go rancid). How much water do you have stored? If I've got land, surely I was smart enough to put one or more wells on it. I'm certain there are more ways to make this trade happen. These are just the easy ones.
written by EJam , August 24, 2013
Well done Mr. Smith you are right on the money (excuse the pun). I have told my friends and family to get some of their money into gold and silver. Now that the prices are down it is a perfect buying opportunity. Just make sure you take delivery of the actual metal and keep it somewhere safe and preferably not in bank deposit box.
written by Tony B , August 24, 2013
I was about to throw my laptop out the window after reading Steve's non-brilliant retort. Having retired this year, I can't afford to buy a new comp.
What astonishes me is, so many people think in terms of 1. One thing at a time. Bullets! Or Silver! Or seeds!
We are being attacked from 70 different angles & from 26 different groups. Mislead by another 9, etc.
There is no ONE way out & improvisation is paramount.
Have land? Excellent. Keep it. Have bullets? Perfect, keep them dry. Have gold or silver or both? Beautiful. Stay the course and, read, read, read! Search for truth [a full time job the 1st year you decide to do so].
Articles like this one written by Brandon help the hard-working guy stay ahead of the curve.... or right up with it.
All one need do is inspect the history of fallen governments of the past, of fallen fiat currencies of the past, of covert ops of the past. Then open those eyes & allow yourself to accept that criminal governments, the cabals that run them, the ancillary players of "the game", are ALWAYS the same. Just different geographical sites, different generations.
The truth is: the Fed has painted itself into a corner, and us with it. When [they] raise interest rates, they will kill what little is left of our economy. If rates are kept at zero and the moneitzation of debt continues, the death of the dollar is not far off. Add to that, everything in Brandon's article.
written by Soffitrat , August 25, 2013
"The elites want a global currency. They openly call for it. They will use the East as a tool to accomplish this. The only lineage planned for dominance is theirs, though I have no doubt that in the end, they will fail."
They want this because they are being forced to flee the current system. They are losing control and it is dying. That said, and we agree on most, are you sure that they will fail? Why?
written by Frank C , August 25, 2013
What effect would a debased currency like the dollar have on the Federal Reserve? My point is this. The Federal Reserve Bank is a private entity. Bonds and other financial instruments are issued by the Federal Reserve. So, when the dollar collapses given your scenario, why wouldn't the Federal Reserve just declare Bankruptcy? Perhaps this is a good thing because the United States would then once again return to its Constitutional bases for issuing currency.
I suppose the Rothschild's will roll over on their $77 Trillion in net worth as the dollar is reduced to nothing. What are your thoughts on this?
written by palloy , August 26, 2013
Good article, but there are more points that make the situation even more dire.
The US will try and distract attention from the petrodollar predicament by starting a war with Iran and Syria, and Russia will take their side, as you've said before. Then the US economy can be put on a "war footing", with unprecedented fuel rationing, survelliance/incarceration of dissidents and "terrorists", and reduction of unemployed young men on the streets through conscription. It's all ready to go.
Then Russia will say to Europe "We are happy to sell you (our friends) our gas, but NOT if we are at war, so, sorry but no more gas till you behave." Who could doubt that they would use this leverage ?
Likewise China will use its hoarde of US Treasuries to crash the Dollar and build on its Yuan trading block - Australia would be caught with split loyalties, but must have oil, so would have to switch sides and trade its coal for Yuan. Australian-Japanese trade would switch to Yuan too. Piece by piece the US Empire would unravel.
Before too long Europe would be forced to split too, leaving the US to sink on its own, and with it the corporatist IMF, World Bank, etc.
written by Jacob Ezekiel , August 26, 2013
(Psalm 146:3-6)
Do not put YOUR trust in nobles, Nor in the son of earthling man, to whom no salvation belongs.
His spirit goes out, he goes back to his ground; In that day his thoughts do perish.
Happy is the one who has the God of Jacob for his help, Whose hope is in Jehovah his God,
The Maker of heaven and earth, Of the sea, and of all that is in them, The One keeping trueness to time indefinite,
http://www.jw.org/en/publications/books/bible-teach/what-is-gods-kingdom/
WHAT IS THE KINGDOM OF GOD? (The Bible’s answer)
God’s Kingdom is a real government established by Jehovah God. “”The kingdom of God”” is also called “”the kingdom of heaven”” in the Bible, since it rules from heaven. (Mark 1:14, 15; Matthew 4:17, King James Version) It shares many attributes of human governments, yet it is superior to them in every way.
“"[God’s Kingdom] will crush and put an end to all these kingdoms [that oppose God], and it itself will stand to times indefinite."” (Daniel 2:44)
God’s Kingdom, not any human government, will satisfy our desire for permanent world peace.—Psalm 145:16
Rulers.
God has appointed Jesus Christ as King of the Kingdom and has given him more authority than any human ruler could ever have. (Matthew 28:18) Jesus uses this power only for good, since he has already proved to be a reliable and compassionate Leader. (Matthew 4:23; Mark 1:40, 41; 6:31-34; Luke 7:11-17) Under God’s direction, Jesus has selected persons from all nations who will “”rule as kings over the earth”” with him in heaven.—Revelation 5:9, 10.
Duration.
Unlike human governments, which come and go, God’s Kingdom “”will never be brought to ruin.””—Daniel 2:44.
Subjects.
Anyone who does what God requires can be a subject of God’s Kingdom, without regard for ancestry or birthplace.—Acts 10:34, 35.
Laws.
The laws (or commandments) of God’s Kingdom do more than just prohibit wrong behavior. They raise the moral character of its subjects. For example, the Bible says: “”‘You must love Jehovah your God with your whole heart and with your whole soul and with your whole mind.’ This is the greatest and first commandment. The second, like it, is this, ‘You must love your neighbor as yourself.’”” (Matthew 22:37-39) Love of God and neighbor moves subjects of the Kingdom to act in the best interests of others.
Education.
While God’s Kingdom sets high standards for its subjects, it also teaches people how to meet those standards.—Isaiah 48:17, 18.
Mission.
The Kingdom of God doesn’t enrich its rulers at the expense of its subjects. Instead, it will accomplish God’s will, including the promise that those who love him will live forever on a paradise earth.—Isaiah 35:1, 5, 6; Matthew 6:10; Revelation 21:1-4.
written by Doug Nusbaum , August 28, 2013
If Mr. Smith, and those who agree with him were a tad bit less ignorant, then they woule be aware of: http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac....esults.php
Look at relative food exports and imports. You might also consider that China is in the process of self destructing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/world/asia/cost-of-environmental-degradation-in-china-is-growing.html?_r=0
or this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_in_China
Do you really think that a few thousand tons of gold is going to fix that? In addition, what is important is not oil, but energy, and as technology gets better, you will quickly see solar and wind, and just plain efficiency replacing oil and coal.
Consider this. Because of our culture out country, and Europe can do car/ride sharing, and you will see car ownership drop over he next generation. Not gonna happen in China.
written by Areyouready , September 21, 2013
Man remains blind to the warnings of God. This is just another Biblical Prophesy occurring right under their noses. Just like when Israel suddenly 'appeared' in 1948 as prophesied and few paid any attention.
This time, the medium of exchange using dollar will disappear. If you want OIL or the WINE of the Great Harlot which is the basis of all trades, you need to embrace her religion and worship the beast...embrace his mark.
Get ready for Armageddon.














