We are only two months into 2015, and it has already proven to be the most volatile year for the economic environment since 2008-2009. We have seen oil markets collapsing by about 50 percent in the span of a few months (just as the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE3, indicating fiat money was used to hide falling demand), the Baltic Dry Index losing 30 percent since the beginning of the year, the Swiss currency surprise, the Greeks threatening EU exit (and now Greek citizens threatening violent protests with the new four-month can-kicking deal), and the effects of the nine-month-long West Coast port strike not yet quantified. This is not just a fleeting expression of a negative first quarter; it is a sign of things to come.
Stock markets are, of course, once again at all-time highs after a shaky start, despite nearly every single fundamental indicator flashing red. But as Zero Hedge recently pointed out in its article on artificial juicing of equities by corporations using massive stock buybacks, this is not going to last much longer, simply because the debt companies are generating is outpacing their ability to prop up the markets.
This conundrum is also visible in central bank stimulus measures. As I have related in past articles, the ability of central banks to goose the global financial system is faltering, as bailouts and low-interest-rate capital infusions now have little to no effect on overall economic performance. The fiat fuel is no longer enough; and when this becomes apparent in the mainstream, all hell will indeed break loose.
The argument that banks can prop up the system forever is now being debunked. In this series of articles, I will cover the core reasons why this is happening, starting with the basis of all economics: supply and demand.
The Baltic Dry Index has been a steadfast indicator of the REAL economy for many years. While most other indexes and measures of fiscal health are subject to direct or indirect manipulation, the BDI has no money flowing through it and, thus, offers a more honest reflection of the world around us. In the past two months, the index measuring shipping rates and international demand for raw goods has hit all-time historical lows, plummeting 57 percent over the course of the past 12 months and 30 percent for the year to date.
The dwindling lack of demand for shipping presents obvious challenges to mainstream talking heads who contend that the overall economic picture indicates recovery. That’s because if demand for raw goods has fallen so far as to produce a 57 percent rate drop over the past year, then surely demand for the consumer goods that those raw goods are used to produce must be collapsing as well. The establishment machine has used the same broken-record argument against this conclusion, despite being proven wrong over and over again: the lie that fleet size is the cause of falling shipping rates, rather than a lack of demand for ships. This is the same argument used by pundits to distract from the problems inherent in the severe drop in oil prices: that oversupply is the issue, and that demand is as good as it ever was. Forbes has even attempted to outright dismiss the 29-year low of the BDI and alternative economic analysts in the same lazily written article.
First, let’s address the issue of global demand for goods. Does the BDI represent this accurately? Well, as most of you know, the real picture on manufacturing and export numbers is nearly impossible to come by considering most, if not all indexes fail to account for monetary devaluation and inflation in costs of production. For instance, mainstream propagandists love to argue that manufacturing (like retail) generally posts at least small to modest gains every year. What they fail to mention or take into account is the added costs to the bottom line of said manufacturers and retailers, as well as the added costs to the end consumer. Such costs are often not addressed in the slightest when final numbers are tallied for the public.
In manufacturing, some numbers are outright falsified, as in the case of China, where officials are forcing plant managers to lie about output.
In my view, any decline made visible in the false numbers of the mainstream should be multiplied by a wide margin in order to approximate what is going on in the real economy. China, the largest exporter and importer in the world, continues to suffer declines in manufacturing “expansion” as it’s PMI suggests orders remain steadily stagnant.
“Official” statistics show a 3.3 percent decline in Chinese exports in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped 19.9 percent. Exports slid 12 percent on a monthly basis while imports fell 21 percent according to the Customs Administration.
In Japan, despite the falling Yen which was expected to boost overseas demand, export growth declined for last year, certainly in terms of export volume. The recent “jump” in January does nothing to offset the steady erosion of Japanese exports over the past five years and the flat demand over the past two years.
Japan’s manufacturing expansion has slowed to the slowest pace in seven months.
In Germany, the EU’s strongest economic center, industrial output has declined to the lowest levels since 2009, and factory orders have also plunged to levels not seen since 2009.
Despite the assumptions in the mainstream media that lower oil prices would result in high retails sales, this fantasy refuses to materialize. Retail sales continue the dismal trend set during the Christmas season of 2014,with the largest decline in 11 months in December, and continued declines in January.
Oil is certainly the most in-our-face undeniable indicator of imploding demand. Volatility has skyrocketed while pump prices have dropped by half in many places. One may be tempted to only see the immediate benefits of this deflation. But they would be overlooking the bigger picture of global demand. Oil is the primary driver of economic productivity. Dwindling demand for oil means dwindling productivity which means dwindling consumption which means a dwindling economy. Period.
OPEC reports announce downgraded global demand for oil above and beyond expectations. Oil demand has fallen to levels not seen since 2002.
Beyond the issue of real global demand for raw goods, the argument that the BDI is being gutted only due to an oversupply of cargo vessels also does not take into account the fact that Shipping companies often SCRAP extra ships when demand falters. I find it rather amusing that mainstream economists seem to think that dry bulk companies would continue a trend of fielding cargo ships they don't use causing an artificial drop in freight rates. As far as I know, such companies are not in the habit of undermining their own profits if they can help it. When an oversupply of ships occurs, companies remove unused vessels either through scrap or dry dock in an attempt to drive freight rates back up to profitable levels. This often works, unless, it is DEMAND for cargo shipping that is the issue, not the supply of ships.
Ship scrapping boomed in 2013 and has not stopped since. In fact, dry bulk mover COSCO dismantled at least 17 ships in the month of January alone and has been dismantling ships consistently since at least 2013. The trend of scrapping is often glossed over by shippers as a "modernization effort", but the fact remains that cargo companies are always removing ships from supply in order to maximize rates and profits.
Finally, global shipping giant Maersk Line now openly admits that the primary detriment to shipping rates, the reason the BDI is falling to historic lows, is because of falling demand in nearly every market; ship supply is secondary.
Does falling demand result in a lack of fleet use and thus "oversupply"? Of course. However, this chicken/egg game that establishment economists play with the BDI needs to stop. Falling demand for goods came first, the number of unused ships came second. This is the reality.
A rather cynical person might point out that all of the stats above come from the propaganda engine that is the mainstream, so why should they count? I would suggest these people consider the fact that the propaganda engine is constantly contradicting itself, and in-between the lines, we can find a certain amount of truth.
If manufacturing is in “expansion”, even minor expansion, then why are exports around the world in decline? If the Baltic Dry Index is dropping off the map because of a “supply glut of ships”, then why are other demand indicators across the board also falling, and why are major shipping agencies talking about lack of demand? You see, this is what alternative analysts mean by the “real economy”; we are talking about the disconnect within the mainstream’s own data, and we are attempting to discern what parts actually present a logical picture. The media would prefer that you look at the economy through a keyhole rather than through a pair of binoculars.
Beyond this lay the true beneficiaries of public oblivion; international corporate moguls, banking financiers, and political despots. Corporations and governments only do two things relatively well — lying and stealing. One always enables the other.
The establishment has done everything in its power to hide the most foundational of economic realities, namely the reality of dying demand. Why? Because the longer they can hide true demand, the more time they have to steal what little independent wealth remains within the system while positioning the populace for the next great con (the con of total globalization and centralization). I will cover the many advantages of an economic collapse for elites at the end of this series.
For now I will only say that the program of manipulation we have seen since 2008 is clearly changing. The fact of catastrophic demand loss is becoming apparent. Such a loss only ever precedes a wider fiscal event. The BDI does not implode without a larger malfunction under the surface of the financial system. Oil and exports and manufacturing do not crumble without the weight of a greater disaster bearing down. These things do not take place in a vacuum. They are the irradiated flash preceding the deadly fallout of a financial atom bomb.
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written by Rodster , March 04, 2015
The BDI is like the temperature in a patient. It gives you an idea if the patient is sick. The BDI is UBER important because the world is so globalized everything is constantly moving.
Hell I live in Florida, home of Tropicana orange juice. The same state that produces some of the best citrus. So why when I go to the supermarket I see citrus from Latin America?
Answer: Because we live in a GLOBALIZED world with globalized ECONOMIES. It would stand to reason if Apple is having Foxxconn build it's iPad's in China they are being shipped around the world. If shipping has dropped then it stands to reason that demand for those products which were supposed to be shipped and sold no longer were needed.
The BDI is a big deal. Looking forward to Part#2.
written by Arizona , March 04, 2015
IF it doesn't say WHERE IN AMERICA IT WAS MADE,I DON'T BUY IT,screw all those assholes selling america down the drain,I tell dealers all the time,OH,you don't have one made in america,YOUR A F**KING COMMIE HUH?..we'll remember that when the war starts,SO kiss my ass,and with that, I leave,I have a few bucks stashed,BUT I ain't giving none of it to anyone who sells foreign made stuff..BESIDES,all that foreign junk is trash..I WOULD HOPE BY NOW these dumb shits who wanted to get rich selling out america are broke now,and on welfare.........
written by Washington , March 04, 2015
"Corporations and governments only do two things relatively well — lying and stealing."
There is a third activity governments and corporate elites excel at and that is mass murder. Something every one should keep in mind at all times.
written by Brandon Smith , March 04, 2015
@Washington
I agree, though it generally takes decades of lying and stealing before mass murder comes into play, and mass murder requires a certain level of complicity from a majority of the public, so I would say that government WITH the support of a majority of citizens commit mass murder relatively well.
written by Brandon Smith , March 05, 2015
@Stevenx
No, actually the port strike deal was put together on Feb 20th and the BDI was immediately down for the first few days after. I would wait a couple months before making such a baseless assumption on the current "rise" on the index. The port strike has also been escalating for 9 months, yet the BDI has been up and down considerably in that time. To say that the current minor rise in the BDI is entirely due to the port union deal is a bit naive.
In other words, it is an erroneous oversimplification of the problem. Do you have any evidence that the strike created lower demand for freight? The explanation is a bit laughable considering the BDI has been dragging at near historical lows for years, far longer than the port strike has been taking place. How do you explain that? I know I know - there's just "so many ships..."
The BDI is still hovering near historic lows despite the tentative port union deal. Not to mention, the BDI measures shipping ALL OVER THE WORLD. China is a larger importer/exporter than the U.S., yet you expect us to believe the slowdown in California ports alone caused the BDI to collapse 57% in the past year? This is absurd.
The BDI is a reflective indicator. If the BDI is down only due to a port strike, or due to ship oversupply, then why are there so many other indicators of falling demand? You can't address the BDI without addressing the demand indicators tied to the BDI, but I do love to see the kinds of mental gymnastics people try to pull when attempting to explain the BDI away.
written by MisteryPhi , March 05, 2015
I too have been pondering this thing with the Baltic Dry Index for some time now, and I think that a portion of the consumer base may have (drastically?) changed their purchasing habits. Buying last year's top-of-the-line whatever from some outlet; buying real goods second-hand (e.g. home appliances, cars, etc); embracing locally produced goods, etc.
'coz let's face it - there is too much of everything being produced and enough of everything that has already been produced that is still out there to be had at a fraction of list price for the smart buyer.
The Baltic Dry Index may simply be the wrong kind of indicator for this phase of history, that's all...
written by Brandon Smith , March 05, 2015
@MisterPhi
America's economy is 70% retail consumer based; this means NEW Chinese trinkets drive our economy. If American demand for said trinkets stops due to lack of capital, the primary business model for the U.S. economy falters, the companies that rely on it lose profits, and the people employed by those businesses lose their jobs. The BDI is not the "wrong kind of indicator" for this kind of scenario. It is in fact the PERFECT indicator.
A collapse in shipping means a collapse in the global economy. Period. An evolution towards localism would be great, in fact that is exactly what I promote here at Alt-Market. But let's be realistic - there is NO real movement towards localism amongst the majority of Americans. Not even close. That doesn't mean Americans can't rebuild under a better dynamic, but anyone who thinks our inflexible debt based retail model will just shift over to a savers model inspired by localism without serious pain is entertaining a fantasy. Such transitions always create crisis.
written by jjconstr , March 06, 2015
Thanks Brandon. You are one analyst that distills economic facts that make sense for the rest of us. That is why I read you first and always.
written by Brandon Smith , March 06, 2015
@citizen
Apparently in your "reality" nearly every economic indicator flashing negative for the year means "picking up steam"...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-18/us-macro-collapses-11-month-lows-88-data-has-missed-february
Never underestimate the absurd power of cognitive stupidity, folks. There are people like 'concerned citizen' everywhere getting all their information from 30 second sound bites and propaganda boxes like NPR.
I guess NPR forgot to explain to you how employment numbers are actually calculated, Citizen. Don't worry, my article next week is on that exact subject. In the meantime, answer me this - if real unemployment is at 5.5%, then why is there a record 92 million Americans out of work?
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000
Want to know the real reason why the jobless rate is falling? Because jobless benefits for millions of Americans are expiring, resulting in them no longer being counted as unemployed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/03/usa-economy-joblessbenefits-idUSL2N0JI16O20131203
written by justanobserver , March 06, 2015
Brandon,
It's a good thing the concerned citizen does not do to much independent thought or research. He might wake up to the lies which his government repeats so often that no matter who gets elected they cannot ever be truthful with the American people (as there is nothing they want to do to correct the course America is on as their wealth and power are tied to servicing the elites and they do not have any loyalty to America or its people.)
Like the truth of what free trade agreements have done to the middle class (while both parties push for new trade agreements) or
the truth about the number of people removed from the labor force by the Bureau of Labor(Lies) and Statistics(Shit).
Of course, all information (even the blogosphere) can stand analysis. Just this morning there was a story about Apple intending on producing a gold Iwatch with 2 ounces of gold in it. The story stated that Apple expected to produce one sixth of the total Iwatch's of 5-6 million units as the version containing 2 ounces of gold. Then the story lost credibility when it stated that this would create a demand for 746 metric tons of gold.
If they produce between 833,000 and 1 million gold Iwatch's total demand for gold would be between 1,666,667 and 2 million ounces. Since their are 35,273.962 ounces of gold in a metric ton that would be at best, between 47.25 and 56.70 metric tons of gold.
Oh well. My guess is that far less than 1% of the American people are sufficiently informed or aware (or even able to put 2 and 2 together) to last for very long in a debate about what America is at the present time or what needs to be done to have any future that remotely resembles a middle class lifestyle.
If you keep your head when others lose theirs...
written by justanobserver , March 06, 2015
Brandon,
About the port strike, while both labor and port authorities were intransigent to the point that the strike occurred what role, if any, did Asian companies play as they have invested in the corporate side of America's ports?
written by djdog , March 07, 2015
"Concerned," you definitely are not "concerned" with reality.... in fact, when I read your comment I could see you sitting at your government supplied laptop at your government shill job doing drooling over its keyboard as you could barely hold yourself still long enough to type at the thought of having a forum for you to propound, profess and pontificate on the new reality: "Truth is Lie." I usually don't respond to such obvious ignorance but this time I make the exception as I want Brandon and all the rest of the folks who read this exceptionally well written piece to just ignore your ramblings as it is the only way to shut you the H.... up.... amen. djdog
written by Brandon Smith , March 07, 2015
@Concerned
If you are going to cut and paste propaganda from sites like Factcheck or CBS, then you might as well just leave a link and save the space in the comments section.
The claim that 92 million working age Americans are without work because they "refuse to participate" is one of the oldest and most tired mainstream lies. The BLS counts teens and "retirees", for instance, when they DO have jobs, yet they don't count them as unemployed when they are out of work, instead they claim that such people "aren't looking for work". Really, how the hell does the government know who actually wants to work and who doesn't?
You and the CBS article also foolishly overlook the fact that every year since 2000 the U.S. economy has been in DECLINE (dot com bubble anyone?). So, maybe, just maybe, Baby Boomer participation is down because of lack of job availability, not because of a refusal to participate.
As I state in the above article, the information given by mainstream sources and the government CONTRADICTS previous information given. In-between we find the truth.
written by Lars Olfen , March 07, 2015
Makes one wonder WHEN the lying about US and global economic performance began?
Were "they" ever honest?
written by Brandon Smith , March 08, 2015
@Lars
In the 1990's they changed the way in which Employment, Inflation, and National Debt were measured in order to hide the impending decline, but I suppose all the manipulation really began from 1913-1916 when the Federal Reserve was established.
written by shotgun 99 , March 08, 2015
Brandon,
Thanks for beginning this series and all the other things you do. I follow you closely.
I live in a 40,000 population Texas town.
First, the paper mill fell into Canadian hands and was closed as they could meet demand with their Canadian mills.
Next, one of our foundries sold to Citation. It was closed in a couple of years because they could meet demand from their other plants.
Now GE has acquired the largest manufacturer we have remaining. They have announced 575 layoffs.
Georgia Pacific has acquired our largest building products producer.
I am extremely troubled by all these developments.
We are suffering from Globilization without Representation.
99
written by William Hunter Duncan , March 09, 2015
Thanks for the info. Even the Tyler Durdens
@ Zero Hedge don't get how falling demand is behind the oil price drop. Reading ZH tonight though, and after this, I don't see how we get out of 2015 without a global economic collapse and possibly WWIII.
written by justanobserver , March 09, 2015
Brandon,
The measurement of inflation was altered in the 80's under Reagan and the 90's under Clinton.
Imagine what the outlays for Social Security would be if for the last 30 years a real world inflation rate of 6 to 10% per year had been incorporated.
Or, imagine how not so high on the hog seniors with precious little social security and an obviously less than the inflation rate on their savings* (where the government's bogus rate or a real-world rate are used) are living.
*And since seniors are highly risk-averse, for the great majority, they are not in the equity or bond markets.
written by concerned citizen , March 10, 2015
http://www.nada.org/Publications/NADADATA/
Your entire argument is very dependent on the claim of false government statistics. So the thousands of employees at the Fed, the Treasury, the IRS, Department of Labor, and Burueau of Economic analysis and their families are in on this.
The BID is hailed as a true indicator, despite the fact that nongovernment commentators have explained the glut in shipping supply. You're also indicting the auto manufacturers, their accounting firms, and the public accounting oversight board that release their sales data. (Record high sales).
Prices are predicted to rise for years on end, but when oil prices and commodity prices drop its a sign of falling demand.
So now you're adding the employees at the Department of Energy and Department of Commerceinto the conspiracy..
Also, my hundreds of facebook friends must be in on it too... they literally are all in full time work or school. My grocery store must be in on it... prices have stayed the same for years.
written by Brandon Smith , March 10, 2015
@concerned citizen
Your argument relies on faulty logic and a red herring. The numerous employees of the BLS do not need to even understand the details behind what they do. All they have to do is come into the office in the morning, work nine to five, collect their paycheck, and go home. Also, as I have already proven, the 5.5% unemployment number is a complete misrepresentation of the facts. This is not a "claim", it is a reality.
The government condones the incorrect method of calcuation, and thus by default, it becomes the "correct" method of calculation. Thousands of mainstream economists ALSO support the use of false numbers. They're not necessarily "in on a conspiracy", they are just too stupid to understand what they are supporting. Your facebook friends are no smarter than they are.
As far as grocery prices are concerned, you must have been living under a rock for the past several years. Prices have been rising nationwide on food by an average of 15% overall per year and in some sectors over 30% per year:
http://thefederalist.com/2014/07/08/food-prices-are-soaring-and-washington-doesnt-care/
Auto sales are also in decline the past few months, and the "spike" last summer is misleading. Only 16% of auto sales before the crash of 2008 were dependent on leasing. Today, they are 26% dependent. Meaning, in order to purchase a car, 26% of American buyers have to take on thousands of dollars in debt and are subject to even more debt when interest rates rise. This is NOT by any means an indicator of "recovery".
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2013-09-05/auto-sales-numbers-offer-false-economic-hope
Then there is the subprime auto bubble, which is inflated to capacity due to toxic loans dolled out to people who have no capacity to pay them back. Was the housing market experiencing a "healthy boom" in 2006 because of the subprime bubble in real estate? Mmm, no. It was a disaster in the making, just as with the auto market:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/in-a-subprime-bubble-for-used-cars-unfit-borrowers-pay-sky-high-rates/?_r=0
What you don't seem to grasp is the concept of stagflation, which causes over-inflation in some sectors while others suffer deflation. It is essentially the worst of both economic worlds and it is exactly what America is experiencing today.
Also, don't think that I do not recognize that you are attempting to distract away from the employment rate issue, to which you have been proven incorrect. Try to stay on topic in the future.
written by Brandon Smith , March 10, 2015
@concerned citizen
If you are going to continue to cherry pick data out of context in order to distract from the primary discussion, namely employment, while repeating arguments I have already addressed, then I do believe there is no point in continuing the conversation. I do not have the time nor the inclination to endlessly debunk every tangent you go on.
written by thegorgon , March 11, 2015
@concerned citizen
Yes, do go on to your next propaganda target. I can't imagine that any readers here would fall your campaign, so why waste your time?
And ours.
@Brandon Smith Just found your site today via oathkeepers. Extremely impressed. Many, many thanks for your hard work and time.
written by JeffQuotesTheArchDruid , March 15, 2015
"What it indicates is the percentage of US residents who happen to be receiving unemployment benefits — which, as I think most people know at this point, run out after a certain period."
from:
http://thearchdruidreport.blog...ation.html
written by Emmett Conrecode , March 17, 2015
Emmett C. It's all about exporting Jobs in exchange for peace with China and her Proxies. Following the two Proxy Wars of Korea and Vietnam, Nixon went to China and sued for peace. They said sure just give us your Manufacturing Jobs. WWII was won by the US Industrial Base, all the World knows that, except US. Nixon though he could corrupt the Communist, well it didn't work. Now we have Rich Communist, and 1/3rd of the World still enslaved.
http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB106/
The Good News the Chinese can eat their Microchips and the Middle East can drink their Oil.
We don't need the World, we have everything we need right here in North America. I really don't NEED and IPhone. I NEED Food, Water, and a Place to live.
written by brenton , March 18, 2015
The BDI is a measure of the cost of transport NOT a measure of the quantity transported.
Its collapse can be attributed to introduction of more shipping capacity.
It is not a reflection of global trade volume
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
written by Brandon Smith , March 18, 2015
@brenton
You are grossly oversimplifying in order to distract from the point. The BDI is a measure of DEMAND for transportation translated to shipping rates. The lower the demand, the lower the rates. This was already explained in the article above.
Rates do not go down simply because some ships might have a larger capacity. Why would shipping companies sabotage themselves by shifting to larger capacities if such a move caused a 50% or more drop in their rates? It's a rather hilarious assertion. There are numerous shipping companies with 50 ships or less in their fleet, and most of these ships are standard capacity.
Also, you apparently did not read the full article, because global shipping leaders like Maersk Line publicly ADMIT that rates are down due to lack of orders and lack of demand:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-01/worlds-largest-container-shipper-warns-global-trade-slowing-down
Nice try on the disinfo, but you're going to need more than wikipedia to muddy the waters here, guy.
written by Rusty Brown in Canada , March 20, 2015
Nowhere does it mention that the BDI depends on oil prices to a great extent. Shippers have to raise their rates to recover higher fuel costs when diesel goes up in price, but can lower them to remain competitive when fuel prices come down, such as right now.
written by Brandon Smith , March 20, 2015
@Rusty
Why would companies cut rates by 50% while scrapping and dry docking ships if demand is steady or adequate? For some reason you seem to believe that rates are under the control of the shippers. They are not. Rates are under the control of the overall market, based on supply and demand. Demand is the determining factor. Companies would NOT lower rates to such an extent (even if it was entirely up to them) as long as demand was steady. Otherwise, they would lose profit unnecessarily. This is the opposite of competitive.
Sorry, but your theory does not hold water. Beyond that, shippers are openly admitting that the issue is DEMAND, not oil prices. Anyone else have another disinfo argument they want to trot out? I think I've heard just about all of them now...
written by AL, Orange Park, FL , April 21, 2015
This is the first I've read of Mr. Smiths work and I've gotta tell ya, I've been following the markets for 5 years pretty steady and found that what Brandon has written here and up to the 5th in the series that I've just read [first in the series actually went and found this and the others after] I agree with him completely and have been a Prepper during those 5 years.
written by kent , May 03, 2015
You should really check out Elliott Wave, Inc's take on the situation. You will be amazed at what they have been reporting since 2000. www.elliottwave.com
